Tuesday's special election in Northern California has been more of a whisper compared with the tornado that has encompassed the House race in upstate New York's 23rd District.

But Republican David Harmer is seeking to pull off an upset in the 10th District that -- if successful -- could trump even the drama that has unfolded in the New York race.

Harmer's supporters are touting [@url@a SurveyUSA poll@http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollPrint.aspx?g=d0a09738-d7a8-4f8f-9ed9-a5275c7eab96&d=0 released last week that showed Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi the heavy favorite to succeed former Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher, ahead of Harmer 50 percent to 40 percent. And in a statement over the weekend, the campaign said it is "waging a widespread and comprehensive get-out-the-vote effort among http://www.harmerforcongress.com/about.htm our Republican base" and is "poised for an historic upset that will rock Washington, D.C., to its very core."

The reality, however, is that Harmer would have to overcome major institutional disadvantages to come from behind to defeat Garamendi, a well-known entity in California politics.

Democrats have a voter registration edge of 47 percent to 28 percent in the district along the eastern edge of the San Francisco Bay Area.

Almost as significantly, Harmer hasn't had the funds to run much of an air war: He just went up with his first TV ad this past weekend, days before the election. Harmer's fundraising report through Oct. 14 indicated he had receipts that were competitive with Garamendi. He raised a total of $498,000 compared with Garamendi's $942,000. But nearly half of what Harmer spent in that period went to mail services, with nothing for advertisements.

Garamendi is expected to ride his strong name recognition and the Democrats' registration advantage to a comfortable victory. But the campaign is not taking the race for granted, recognizing low turnout from Democrats could make the race closer than expected.

The Garamendi campaign launched a phone banking operation Oct. 30 and engaged in other weekend volunteer canvassing in the lead-up to today's election. And he has enlisted big-name Democrats such as former President Bill Clinton and, more recently, former Vice President Al Gore, to rally the party faithful.

CQ Politics rates California's 10th District race as Safe Democratic.

To see how all the 2010 House races are shaping up, check out the CQ Politics election map